THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION FORECASTING METHODS: 2024

The 2024 electoral cycle tells us a long-known but always intriguing story. The United States remains a multifaceted and unpredictable country and people. At the same time, seeking rules and patterns in the development of American politics is a necessary element in understanding America. While there may be constants in U.S. political development, the ever-changing "variables" of American society compel us to reevaluate our findings time and time again, year after year. Methods for forecasting presidential elections are no exception. In our attempts to answer the question, "Who will become the most influential politician in the world this time?" we encounter established truths that never cease to surprise.

Thus, in 2024, our goal was to test the resilience of the most popular methods for forecasting presidential elections. During this electoral cycle, we conducted preliminary assessments under each method and learned what they attempt to measure in the unpredictable world of American politics.