NEW RELEASE: «Who Predicted Trump's Victory?». A Comparative Analysis of Methodological Frameworks in U.S. Presidential Election Forecasting

In 2016, Donald Trump’s ascension to the presidency defied the expectations of virtually all major polling institutions, upending the prevailing assumptions of the political establishment. In 2020, forecasts from leading analysts projected a decisive victory for Joe Biden, with margins ranging from 7 to 15 percentage points; nevertheless, the actual outcome was markedly narrower, exposing a persistent disconnect between predictive models and electoral realities. The 2024 campaign cycle has further amplified this unpredictability: even eminent prognosticators such as Allan Lichtman—long esteemed for his prescient electoral models—saw their reputations diminished by erroneous forecasts. This succession of elections has illuminated the profound volatility now characterizing the American political landscape, underscoring the limitations of traditional polling methodologies and the increasing complexity of voter behavior in a rapidly evolving electorate. Source: https://dubravskiy.consulting/predictionoftrumpsvictory Made under the supervision of «Dubravskii Consulting» by Pavel Dubravskii. Copyright © 2025. All rights reserved.