Supreme Court vacancy and NYC dilemma. Polymarket and Political Science

The recent elections revealed drawbacks in traditional methods of the U.S presidential election forecasting. In particular, the reputation of political polls has suffered: for the third electoral cycle, polls have conveyed distorted results from narrow samples and highlighted the lack of modernization in key sociological tools. In response to the public's demand for reform in sociological measurement, Prediction Markets or Futures Markets for Elections have emerged. The largest of these is considered to be Polymarket, a platform for betting by enthusiasts and experts on the future outcomes of political and social events. As practice has shown, polling on these market platforms have demonstrated greater accuracy in reflecting public sentiment. Here we want to illuminate matters – to have a look at the bets most accurate to follow.

1. «Supreme Court vacancy in 2025?»

MAIN ISSUE: Justice Clarence Thomas may face "good behavior concerns" and be impeached. The Supreme Court executes an essential political power of American government — interprets the Constitution and precedents, thus, shapes the very parts of society’s life. Since the Marbury v. Madison case, the Supreme Court has conducted the Judicial review — supervisory functions over the public entities. The Court’s place in the governmental system is debated but is never overestimated .

Resignation & impeachment

Article III, Section 1: "The judicial Power of the United States, shall be vested in one Supreme Court, and in such inferior Courts as the Congress may from time to time ordain and establish. The Judges, both of the supreme and inferior Courts, shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour, and shall, at stated Times, receive for their Services, a Compensation, which shall not be diminished during their Continuance in Office." This section implies that federal judges, including Supreme Court justices, serve for life unless they are removed through impeachment or choose to resign.

Appointment

Article II, Section 2, Clause 2: "[The President] shall nominate, and by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, shall appoint...Judges of the supreme Court..." This clause establishes the shared role of the President and the Senate in the appointment of federal judges, ensuring a balance of power between the executive and legislative branches in this process.

The Supreme Court has recently undergone notable transformations with the appointments of Justices Amy Coney Barrett and Ketanji Brown Jackson. Recent Appointments

• Justice Amy Coney Barrett: In October 2020, Amy Coney Barrett assumed her role on the Supreme Court following her nomination by President Donald Trump. Her appointment filled the vacancy created by the passing of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Barrett's conservative judicial philosophy has been perceived as a pivotal shift in the Court's ideological composition.

• Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson: Ketanji Brown Jackson was sworn in as an Associate Justice in June 2022, nominated by President Joe Biden. A historic moment, Jackson became the first Black woman to serve on the Supreme Court, succeeding Justice Stephen Breyer upon his retirement. Her arrival is expected to bring a broader spectrum of perspectives to the Court, mirroring the nation's diversifying demographics.
  

These changes underscore the Supreme Court's dynamic nature. Each Justice brings their own interpretive lens to bear on the law, contributing to the ongoing evolution of American legal thought. Allegations Involving Justice Clarence Thomas

Justice Clarence Thomas's tenure on the Supreme Court has been marked by controversy, stemming from a range of allegations:

• Sexual Harassment Allegations: During his 1991 confirmation hearings, Anita Hill accused Justice Thomas of sexual harassment, alleging inappropriate behavior during their time together at the Department of Education and the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. Despite the gravity of Hill's testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee, Thomas was ultimately confirmed.

• Financial Disclosure Issues: Justice Thomas has faced scrutiny for alleged inaccuracies in his financial disclosure forms, specifically regarding the reporting of his wife's income. Virginia Thomas's involvement in political activities has raised concerns about potential conflicts of interest. Justice Thomas later amended his disclosure forms to address these omissions.

• Ethics Concerns: Calls have been made for Justice Thomas to recuse himself from cases involving certain political matters, given his wife's activism in these areas. Critics suggest that his impartiality could be compromised. Justice Thomas has asserted that his judicial decisions remain independent and grounded in the law.
  

2. «Who will win Dem nomination for NYC Mayor?»

MAIN ISSUE: Polymarket shows the high chance of Andrew Cuomo becoming next Democratic force for the NYC mayor race, while Eric Adams avoided federal prosecution case and has better background.

In the coming months, New Yorkers will once again face the difficult question of choosing the head of the global financial center. This race is worth paying attention to, at least thanks to Polymarket. The results of the " polls" demonstrate the impossible: Andrew Cuomo, the former mayor of NYC, who left his post under the onslaught of heavy accusations in the midst of the pandemic, is in the lead for the Democratic Party seat. His successor, the current mayor Eric Adams, proved to be a "conservative Democrat" who focuses more on the problems of urban life. The modernization of the NYC public system was so necessary that even the small achievements of the "imperfect" Adams could pave the way for his future victory. At least in a field where Cuomo is the opponent. Essential – Eric Adams

• Overall Crime Reduction: NYC has seen a decrease in crime. Crime went down 6.4% citywide in August compared to the same time the previous year.

• Subway Safety: Crime in the subways has decreased.

• Gun Control: The city has removed thousands of illegal guns from the streets.

• Midtown Community Improvement Coalition: Adams introduced this coalition to address issues ranging from theft to persistent lawbreakers in the Times Square area.

• NYPD Initiatives: The mayor hired 4,000 new cops and surged over 1,000 additional officers into the subway system.

Essential – Andrew Cuomo

Resignation and Allegations:

• Cuomo resigned in August 2021 following a damning report by New York Attorney General Letitia James, which concluded that he had sexually harassed multiple women, including former staffers. The report detailed instances of unwelcome touching and offensive comments, creating a hostile work environment for women.

• His resignation came amid growing pressure from fellow Democrats and the threat of impeachment, illustrating the severity of the situation and the loss of support within his party.

Political Climate:

• The Democratic Party has shifted significantly since Cuomo's tenure, with increased emphasis on accountability regarding sexual harassment and misconduct. This cultural change makes it difficult for someone with Cuomo's background to regain favor as a candidate.

• Many within the party are likely to distance themselves from him due to the negative implications of his past actions, which could hinder any attempts at securing a nomination.

Public Sentiment and Support:

• While some polls indicated that Cuomo still retained a degree of support among Democratic voters, the overall public sentiment has been largely negative since his resignation. His approval ratings have not recovered sufficiently to position him as a viable candidate for

major office again.

Furthermore, potential challengers within the Democratic Party are likely to emerge, making it even more challenging for Cuomo to secure a nomination if he were to run again. Andrew Cuomo's history of serious allegations, his resignation under pressure, and the evolving political landscape make it vague that he will become the Democratic nominee for any significant office in the near future.

SUMMARY

The Supreme Court remains a focal point of American governance, wielding substantial influence over constitutional interpretation and societal norms. Recent appointments have shifted its ideological balance, notably with Justices Amy Coney Barrett and Ketanji Brown Jackson joining the bench. Barrett's conservative stance contrasts with Jackson's historic role as the first Black woman on the Court, reflecting a diversifying judiciary.

However, Justice Clarence Thomas faces scrutiny due to past allegations of sexual harassment and ongoing ethical concerns related to financial disclosures and potential conflicts of interest. These controversies raise questions about his future on the bench, with discussions around impeachment gaining traction.

As New York City prepares for its upcoming mayoral election, the race is heating up between former Governor Andrew Cuomo and current Mayor Eric Adams. Despite Cuomo’s controversial resignation amid sexual harassment allegations, Polymarket suggests he could be a frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. This situation underscores a broader shift within the Democratic Party towards accountability and reform.

Adams has focused on urban issues and public safety, achieving notable crime reductions and enhancing subway security. His administration's efforts to modernize city services position him favorably compared to Cuomo, whose legacy is marred by scandal and diminished public support.

While Cuomo's name may resurface in political discussions, the combination of his troubled past, evolving party dynamics, and Adams' proactive governance suggests that Cuomo's path to becoming a significant Democratic nominee is fraught with obstacles. The political climate increasingly favors candidates who prioritize accountability and effective governance over those with tarnished reputations. What do you think on the analysis above?

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